January 21, 2004

It Could Get Ugly

Interesting article on NRO about the Dem convention and all that's involved in a brokered nomination.

... Newsflash for mainstream journalists: Democratic presidential hopefuls do not actually win states. They win delegates proportionate to their support within that state (Article 2, Section 4b of their charter). The Democratic party's primary system is not winner-take-all, like the GOP's.

As an example, in 2000 Al Gore won 64 percent of the vote in Iowa. Bill Bradley won 35 percent of the vote. Gore received 29 delegates from Iowa and Bradley received 18 delegates. A similar split occurred in New York that year. Gore received 65 percent of the vote and 158 delegates. Bradley received 34 percent of the vote and 85 delegates.

John Kerry did not win all of Iowa's convention delegates Monday night. He won approximately 38 percent of its delegates. This means that if we were to see the results in Iowa replicated in each and every upcoming primary contest (which we won't), there would be no nominee with the delegates to lay claim to the nomination. Democratic presidential wannabes would then begin to wheel and deal and seek support from the roughly 800 Democratic super-delegates and from each other.

Will this happen? It is more possible than people think.

Posted by Ithildin at January 21, 2004 5:49 PM | PROCURE FINE OLD WORLD ABSINTHE

A brokered convention is every political reporter's fantasy: something they all talk about, that they know is thereotically possible, but that never actually happens. I wouldn't bet on it this year, either, but it's definitely more likely than usual.

Posted by: Dave J at January 22, 2004 8:46 AM

Sounds like a cluster-f*ck to me.....

Posted by: Easycure at January 22, 2004 8:50 AM

It will make great political junkie fodder if it happens.

Posted by: Ith at January 22, 2004 10:43 AM